Mr. 39 Months “Drawdown” plan

Draw Down Plan

Several FIRE-related blogs (see below) have started a blog chain on how they are/plan to draw down their savings over their retirement. There are an infinite number of ways to do this, and a lot of its based on your own particular issues/resources.

It’s a topic that isn’t covered very much, and when I stumbled onto it today, I read just about every link I could.

I thought I’d join the chain and list my plan.

Expected resources at time of retirement (July 2020)

  • Savings: $132K
  • Deferred Income from work: $179K**
  • Brokerage Account: $94K
  • Inherited IRA from my father: $137K
  • 401K/IRAs: $546K
  • Roth IRAs: $257K
  • Total: $1,345K liquid assets
  • House: $298K (not depending on it unless absolutely necessary, i.e. no reverse mortgage)

** My company allows you to “defer” income from work (i.e. don’t get paid it) until a later date, up to a certain percentage. Once you leave the company, you can take it as a lump sum or as regular monthly payments over a 5 year span. You pay taxes on it as you are paid it. In the meantime, you can invest it just like a 401K

The plan

Plan is to take out $72,000 a year/$6,000 a month. We will draw this back the equivalent when we start taking social security in 2024 (Mrs. 39 months) and 2031 (Mr. 39 months). I’ve used the FireCalc to determine that, even without social security, we have over a 90% chance to go till 95, so Social Security is a bonus here.

  1. Year 0: Setup savings as base of 2X annual salary. Plus that up at the beginning of each year from investment accounts.
  2. Year 1-3: Use Deferred income to pay for withdrawals till exhausted. Note that I still have to take a portion of my father’s inherited IRA ($5K a year)
  3. Year 4-5:  Draw down brokerage account to 0. It is here that we could start getting Social Security for Mrs. 39 months
  4. Year 6-8: Draw down my father’s IRA to 0 while continuing (if possible) to get SS for Mrs. 39 months
  5. Year 9 – 25: Draw down 401K/IRA to 0. It is here that we would finally start taking Mr. 39 months social security
  6. Year 26+: Still plenty of money left over in the Roth IRA to last us, plus we have the 2X money in savings and the house, so it should enable us to be OK.

Overall, we could retire right now if I had confidence that Social Security (or at least 75% of Social Security ) would be there for us. I just don’t know, so I intend to work till July 2020 (Independence day!) to make sure we will be OK no matter what.

More Withdrawal Strategies

Here are more retirement strategies from the PF blogger community. Some of these are much more detailed than mine. Check them out!

Anchor: Physician On Fire: Our Drawdown Plan in Early Retirement
Link 1: The Retirement Manifesto: Our Retirement Investment Drawdown Strategy
Link 2: OthalaFehu: Retirement Master Plan
Link 3: Plan.Invest.Escape: Drawdown vs. Wealth Preservation in Early Retirement
Link 4: Freedom Is Groovy: The Groovy Drawdown Strategy
Link 5: The Green Swan: The Nastiest, Hardest Problem In Finance: Decumulation
Link 6: My Curiosity Lab: Show Me The Money: My Retirement Drawdown Plan
Link 7: Cracking Retirement: Our Drawdown Strategy
Link 8: The Financial Journeyman: Early Retirement Portfolio & Plan

Link 9: Retire by 40: Our Unusual Early Retirement Withdrawal Strategy

 

 

Mr. 39 months

You’ve got to have hobbies 2

Sorry for the lack of postings, but I’ve spent the last week backpacking the Appalachian Trail (AT) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. In seven days, a group of six of us hiked 69 miles southbound on the AT. The group had a wide variety of ages and experience – from 31 to 61, from only having hiked before (no backpacking) to 14+ years of backpacking experience.

 

For those of you unfamiliar with the AT, it was originally created back in the 1920s and 1930s as a series of trails and small wooden 3-sided shelters (capable of holding 7-14 people) for people to be able to use on the weekends to get away to nature, get to the outdoors. Shortly after it was created, someone came up with the idea of hiking the series of trails in some connected fashion, and thus was born the idea of “through hiking” the AT.

 

The AT stretches from Georgia to Maine, running along the Appalachian Mountain chain for over 2,100 miles. Backpacking its length has become a sort of “rite of passage” for some people, where folks who are facing significant changes in their life (graduations from school, going out into the work world, retirement, job loss, death of a spouse or loved one, etc.) go to travel alone and experience nature. Many folks have called it “America’s Camino”.

 

Another way to through hike it, which I’ve chosen, is to section hike it, where you hike portions of the trail on the weekends and for weeks at a time, over a period of time. I’ve spent the last 14 years doing parts of the trail, and have racked up almost 800 miles so far. It’s a good way to experience the trail, without committing to the 4-6 months that it would take to through hike it.

 

I’ve said before that you have to have something to do (hobbies, part-time work, volunteer work, etc.) to keep yourself occupied once you “retire” or you will go nuts with boredom. I have woodworking, backpacking and some other interests. Whatever you want to spend time on, go for it. It’s one of the primary reasons to become financially independent – to get your time back.

 

Have fun out there.

 

Mr. 39 months

 

Book Review – Work Less, Live More by Bob Clyatt

Bob Clyatt wrote this book in 2007 to detail his journey through early retirement (at age 42) back to semi-retirement. His definition of “semi-retirement” seems to be in line with a lot of FIRE writers – a part time or temp position that allows you to earn additional hours performing work that you generally enjoy. He is another individual who achieved financial independence, but after retiring early, he found that his worry about money and his desires to stay involved led him back to the work world – but only partially.

 

The books starts out with working on the “whys” of early/semi-retirement (stale work, new ideas, etc.) and then goes into how to prepare for it. He covers some of the difficult steps of moving from work to semi-retirement. A significant portion of the book is dedicated to setting your spending plan and living beneath your means (determining annual spending, retiring outside the US, etc.)

 

He then goes into investing strategies for the semi-retired, including portfolio theory, rational investing and rebalancing. He provides concrete examples of various portfolios, based on the individuals he interviewed. He also discusses the 4% safe withdrawal rate, and provides backup for the data and results.

 

Finally, he goes through other aspects of early/semi-retirement. He talks about the advantages of part-time/temp work, volunteer work, health care, etc. In the end, he urges everyone to take simple steps to make their life well-lived.

 

One of the best parts of the books  are the numerous resources, links and web pages  for the various topics covered. It is here where the  book really proves its value, and it becomes a good read for those of us seeking financial independence and an early or semi-retirement.

Rating 4 stars out of 5

Final Ratios

The final ratios I want to discuss are Savings ratios and Growth ratios

 

Savings Ratios

 

You can use current income to pay for current consumption or to pay off past debts . The other option is to purchase assets that grow and create wealth – wealth that will provide financial security. This wealth is acquired by deferring current consumption and diverting income into long-term investments. The savings ratios measure the amount being saved and invested.

 

The first one is investment assets-to-net worth ratio = investment assets / total net worth (both items from net worth sheet).

 

This tracks increases of income and wealth producing assets. Many people have a significant amount of their net worth tied up in their personal homes (and when that value drops like in 2008, it can be catastrophic). This ratio helps to show improvement in non-real estate assets.

 

Based on our previous statements, the ratio would be $165,000 (investment assets) / $298,700 (total net worth) = 55.2%. This ratio should increase over time as you close in on retirement

 

The second savings ratio you should track is the savings-to-income ratio. It is a simple one, and its purpose is to determine the percentage of your income you save each year. You gain the data from your cash flow statement.

 

Based on the previous statements, the ratio for the previous documents would be $13,500 / $79,100 = 17% of their income, which is good for normal folks. However, for FIRE people, the percentage is a little low – most FIRE folks shoot for 30% – 50% or more. The ratio of savings you need to perform is based on your overall financial goals.

 

Note that this ratio should increase over time, especially as you pay off debts and the mortgage. Don’t just take pay increases and increase your lifestyle – always take some (or all) of it and put it aside into savings.

 

Real Growth Ratios

 

Inflation is the killer of savings, slowly bleeding your savings down until you have nothing left. If inflation is 3%, the price of a product will double in 24 years. How do you deal with this?

 

You save enough and invest correctly, so your money grows faster than the rate of inflation. You should use the growth of Net worth ratio to make sure you are keeping up with inflation.

 

Growth of Net Worth Ratio =[(Net worth this year – New worth last year) / Net Worth last year] – inflation rate

Example: [( 298,700 – 275,000) / 275,000] – .03 (inflation rate) = 0.056 or 5.6% Net Worth growth.

 

Then once you retire, you follow the 4% rule, adjust for inflation, and enjoy the good times!

 

Think of your financial ratios as a report from your annual financial health checkup!

First two financial ratios

In my last post, I wrote about the two basic financial reports, net worth and cash flow. These are the building blocks for understanding your current (and potentially future) financial status.

 

The next things to consider are important ratios, where you compare key parts of the main two reports to determine specific financial status. Like Net Worth, ratios are static “snapshots” of current financial status. The important thing with ratios is to track them over time, and see if you are improving your financial situation.

 

Liquidity

 

Liquidity is a measure of the speed at which an asset can be converted into cash without loss of value. Cash, savings, checking and money markets can be quickly turned into cash. Stocks and Bonds (and real assets like gold, real estate, etc.) are more difficult to turn into cash at short notice.

 

Most people require a little bit of liquidity in order to survive (purchase food, pay bills, etc.). The key is to keep your liquidity in line with your other financial goals, and to keep your liquid assets as low as possible (while still being able to sleep at night).

 

The basic liquidity ratio is:

Liquidity Ratio = liquid monetary assets (from balance sheet) / average monthly expenses (from cash flow statement)

 

Liquid assets: Cash, checking, money market accounts, and savings

Two months recommended

 

From our previous post, the individual has a liquidity ratio of $22,200 (from Net worth) / $6,414.58 (annual expenses divided by 12) = 3.46 months for liquidity.

 

If your income is steady and your job secure, with predictable expenses, you probably don’t need much more than 2x your expenses in liquid assets. Many financial advisors (like Dave Ramsey) recommend building up this “emergency fund” to as much as 6 months. Some folks (like Mrs. 39 months) like it as high as 12+ months.

 

Debt Ratios

 

The purpose of debt ratios is to determine the amount of financial leverage you currently use, and to track as you (hopefully) improve. The objective is obviously to become debt-free, especially if you want to be financially independent. The debt-to-asset ratio is very useful for tracking progress.

 

The data source is entirely the balance sheet. Debt-to-asset ratio = total debt / total assets.

From our example last post, $96,500 Debt / 335,300 Assets = 0.288

 

Another Debt ratio that is good to track is the Debt-to-Gross income ratio, which is the total debt payments / annual take home pay (pay after taxes, medical, etc.). It is used to help determine your ability to pay the debts off.

 

The source of the data is the cash flow statement.

From our example last post, $$11,400 (mortgage & debt payments) / $45,925 (total take home pay) = 0.248 or 24.8%. This is pretty good, as you should never take on debt payments (including student loans) of over 36% of salary.  Another recommendation is not to take on housing costs (mortgage or rent) of more than 28% of salary.

 

For my next post, I’ll talk about Savings Ratios and Real Growth rate ratios.

 

Mr. 39 Months

Basic Financial Documents

Basic Financial Documents

 

I was going to start some postings on basic finance documents and ratios, for a FIRE reader to use to start tracking their performance and see how they are doing over time. The key with all of these is that they are “snapshots” in time, which give you a single image. You have to rack them, over time, to see how you are doing.

 

Comparing yourself to others is madness (and is the heart of the “keeping up with the Joneses” spending which has caused so many issues in the current culture.

 

Instead, track yourself, and see yourself improving. By doing that, you can see your improvement over time. That should provide motivation enough to keep moving forward.

 

Net Worth

  1. Assets: Items you own. Don’t get too complicated here, because you will have to maintain it regularly. Keep it as simple as possible
    1. Liquid assets (cash, checking, savings, money market)
    2. Investments (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)
    3. Personal assets (home, cars, property, etc.) – be very realistic here. They aren’t very liquid, so difficult to generate cash from them
  2. Liabilities: Debts or amounts that you owe
    1. Short-term: pay off in next 12 months (credit card, utility bills, etc.)
    2. Long-term: payoff that requires more than 12 months (auto loans, mortgages, student loans, etc.)
  3. Net worth:

Net Worth = Assets – Liabilities

 

Here is a sample Net worth Statement (not mine)

Assets Total
Financial Assets
Cash $200
Checking $3,000
Money Market Accounts $7,000
Savings $6,000
Certificates of Deposit $6,000
Total financial Assets $22,200
Personal Assets
Clothing $12,000
Furnishings $15,000
Auto $20,000
Home $150,000
Other $1,100
Total personal assets $198,100
Investments
Stocks $0
Bonds $0
Mutual Funds $25,000
Retirement Plans (401K, IRA) $90,000
Life Insurance Cash Values $0
Real Estate $0
total Investments $115,000
 
TOTAL ASSETS $335,300
Liabilities
Short Term
Utilities ($500)
Credit Card ($2,000)
Other $0
total short-term debt ($2,500)
Long Term
Auto Loans ($3,000)
Student Loans ($15,000)
Home Mortgage ($76,000)
Other $0
Total Long-term debt ($94,000)
TOTAL LIABILITIES ($96,500)
NET WORTH
Total Assets $335,300
Total Liabilities ($96,500)
Net Worth $238,800

 

The Net Worth is a snapshot in a period of time (I take mine on Jan 1 of each year). You should track it at regular intervals. Your Goal is to increase your net worth to achieve a desired degree of financial security, and to eventually be able Financially Independent.

 

 

Cash Flow Statement

 

The Balance Sheet lists values for a single point in time. Your Cash Flow statement will show activity over a period of time, like a year. It has two sections – sources of income and expenses. Sources include any activity that produces cash for you to spend. Expenses list your expenditures (mortgage/rent, food, auto loan, insurance, etc.)

 

It’s helpful to divide the expenses into two categories – fixed and variable. Fixed are often non-negotiable (mortgage, insurance, etc.) while variable expenses are often under your control (dining out, vacations, etc.). Note that developing the cash flow statement can be difficult for many, as tracking your expenses at first seems to be a monumental task. Start with a shorter time frame (a month, or a week) and build from there.

 

Cash Flow

  1. Income: Includes all sources of cash
    1. Wages
    2. Pensions
    3. Investment income
    4. Cash gifts received
    5. Loans
  2. Expenses
    1. Payroll deductions (taxes, health insurance, Social Security, 401K, etc.)
    2. Fixed Expenses (mortgage payments, loan payments, utility bills, property taxes, etc.)
    3. Variable Expenses (Food, dining out, clothing, gifts, etc.)
  3. Cash Flow

Cash Flow = Income – Expenses

 

 

Here is a sample Cash Flow Statement (not mine)

CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Sources of Cash
Wage/Salary $77,000
Interest $900
Investment Distributions $1,200
Total Sources $79,100
Payroll Deductions
Federal Income Tax ($14,000)
Social Security Tax ($5,775)
State Income tax ($3,500)
Medical Insurance Premium ($2,400)
401K plans ($7,500)
Total Payroll Deductions ($33,175)
Fixed Expenses
Mortgage ($7,800)
Loan Payments ($3,600)
Utilities ($5,000)
Insurance ($3,000)
Property Taxes ($3,000)
Investment plans ($6,000)
Total Fixed Expenses ($28,400)
Variable Expenses
Charitable contributions ($2,400)
Clothing ($3,000)
Education $0
Food ($5,000)
Gifts ($2,000)
Travel/Vacation ($3,000)
Total Variable Expenses ($15,400)
CASH FLOW
Total Sources of Cash $79,100
Total Expenses ($76,975)
Cash Flow $2,125

 

Again, keep your cash flow records as simple as possible. Excessively detailed records require more maintenance, increasing the chance that you will get tired of updating the information. It is better to have a simple statement that you update regularly than a complicated tracking system.

 

Your first cash flow statement is often the most difficult to develop. As you do more, you will find it easier because you have a starting point to go off of.

 

Understanding your cash income and your expenses is a critical step to taking control of your finances. From here, you can make plans, determine tradeoffs, and make educated guesses on where to add and where to cut back. This will enable you to focus your expenditures toward your financial priorities.

 

 

Financial Independence Reading List

Here are the books (physical and electronic) that I’ve managed to accumulate over the last 15 years, as I’ve made my way towards Financial Independence.

In the months ahead I hope to be able to give book reviews on them and other books, so you can have some idea of their potential use for you.

Area Title Author
Business Street Smarts Brody and Burlingham
Business The $100 Startup Chris Guillebeau
Financial Planning Fast Forward MBA in Financial Planning Eugene McCarthy
Financial Planning I will teach you to be Rich Ramit Sethi
Financial Planning Multiple Streams of Income Robert Allen
Financial Planning The fast forward MBA in Finance John Tracy
Financial Planning The Simple Dollar Trent Hamm
Financial Planning The Total Money Makeover Dave Ramsey
Financial Planning Your Money: The missing Manual J.D. Roth
Frugality Living Large in our Little House Kerri Fivecoat-Campbell
Frugality Scratch Beginnings Adam Shepard
Frugality The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin Benjamin Franklin
Frugality The Millionaire Next Door Stanley and Danko
Investments A Random walk down Wall Street Buron Malkiel
Investments Fail-Safe Investing Harry Browne
Investments Safe Money in Tough Times Jonathon Pond
Investments The Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham
Investments The little book of Value Investing Christopher Browne
Investments Value Investing for Dummies Janey Haley
Investments Yes, you can be a successful Income Investor Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth
Investments Yes, you can get a financial life Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth
Investments Yes, you can supercahrge your Portfolio Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth
Philosophy A place of my own Michael Pollan
Philosophy Chop Wood, Carry Water Rick Fields
Philosophy How to win friends and Influence People Dale Carnegie
Philosophy Life 101 Peter Wallace
Philosophy Shop Class as Soulcraft Matthew Crawford
Philosophy The Four Hour Workweek Tim Ferriss
Philosophy The Right Way to Hire Financial Help Charles Jaffe
Philosophy Think and Grow Rich Napoleon Hill
Philosophy What color is your Parachute Richard Bolles
Retirement Retire Early and Live Well Gillette Edmunds
Retirement The WSJ Complete Retirement Guidebook Ruffenach & Greene
Retirement Work Less, Live More Bob Clyatt
Retirement Yes, you can still retire comfortably Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth

 

 

Monthly Update for May 2017 (Month 38)

 

So how am I doing vs. my goals for 2017?

 

  1. Invest $33,000 in tax-advantaged accounts in 2017: Put in $4,660.87 into my 401K and Roth IRAs. Currently have put in $18,084 for year (including a 5.7K bump from part of my bonus). On track to hit it
  2. Invest $26,000 in regular accounts in 2017: Put in another $1,376.29 (my old mortgage payment). Currently have put in $16,881 (rollover money from Pop’s IRA and bonus money)
  3. Increased dividend income to $18,000: Won’t figure dividends till end of quarter, when a lot of them pay out
  4. Passive income covers 65% of base living expenses: Again, will wait till end of quarter to figure out
  5. New worth beats 6% growth figure: Assuming house worth stays equal (hard to figure out in this market), my net worth is up 5%, primarily due to investments. Looks like I should be able to hit my goal here.
  6. Begin attending REIA (Real Estate Investor’s Association)  Meetings: Will start in July
  7. Start a blog: Done in April
  8. Publish Student Finance Book: Done in April
  9. Increase weight lifted by 10%: I’m up 6% for year, but have plateaued for last 2 months. Part of it is just sticking to regular exercise
  10. Average 3 hours of Cardio every week: Currently doing a little over 1 hour. Not good
  11. Go on an international trip: Wife’s job status doesn’t allow for vacations till Oct. Will try to squeeze something in
  12. Visit a national park: Again, wife’s job status. Will probably try and hit Ellis Island this summer
  13. See the 2017 Solar Eclipse: August 21st! Unfortunately, we won’t be in the direct path, but I have family in Knoxville TN that will.

 

Investment Returns for May:

  • IRAs (30% bonds, rest split between S&P500, REITs, Small Cap & Int’l): +0.87%
  • Roth IRAs (30% bonds, rest split between S&P500, REITs, Small Cap & Int’l): +0.75%
  • 401K (30% bonds, rest split between S&P500, Small Cap & Int’l): +0.80%
  • Deferred compensation from work (30% bonds, rest split between S&P500, Small Cap & Int’l): +0.87%
  • Inherited IRA (set up for income; 25% REITs, 25% dividend stocks, 50% bonds): +0.78%
  • Personal investments (26% stock, 44% REIT, 30% bond ): -0.92%

 

Apparently, I continue to do poorly at picking stocks, REITs and bonds for my personal investments. I doesn’t help that I’m trying to get my personal investment allocation to match my inherited IRA. That means I’ve been buying a lot of bond index funds – and with rates going up, I’m getting hammered.

 

Overall, I’m pretty happy with May, and with the year so far. Month 38 is “in the can” and retired.

 

On to month 37!

 

Mr. 39 Months