Correction Coming? Timing the Market in 2020

I have written several times about the potential of timing the market, using a variety of methods. My favorite approach would be the one Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth came up with after the dot.Com blowup in 2000. I even went back and charted how I would have done if I had followed their advice since I had graduated (back in 1986 – yep, I’m an old man).

For a lot of folks, the giant returns of 2019 were a godsend after having suffered a downturn in 2018. It helped plump back up everyone’s retirement accounts and personal savings, and better place them for retiring early. Yet now there is that nagging fear that we’ll have a correction, and we will lose all those wonderful gains that we had. This also raises the specter of “sequence of return risk,” where you retire right as the market tanks (or stays flat for a decade+). So what is a person to do?

I looked at my “market timing” stats for 2019 and 2020 and here is what they said:

  1. Price (Current price of S&P500 vs 15 year trend): Jan 2019: No to stocks, Jan 2020: No to stocks
  2. P/E Ratio (Current S&P 500 P/E ratio vs 15-year trend): Jan 2019: Yes to stocks, Jan 2020: No to stocks
  3. Dividend yield of S&P500 vs 15-year average: Jan 2019: Yes to stocks, Jan 2020: No to stocks
  4. Earnings of S&P500 vs. AAA corporate bond (stock earnings “yield” vs. yield of AAA bonds): Jan 2019: Yes to stocks, Jan 2020: Yes to stocks

So in Jan 2019, 3 of the 4 indicators said to purchase stocks, while in Jan 2020, 3 of the 4 are saying invest in bonds. Looks to me like stocks aren’t set up to do great in 2020.

Now remember, these timing stats did not say to sell your stocks/bonds, they just say that for that period, you just concentrate your new purchases on the appropriate category.

As I’ve stated before, I’m a firm believer in the “buy and hold” strategy, keeping with your market allocation, and rebalancing regularly (for me every 6 months) in order to keep your allocation within your guidelines. While some folks may have enjoyed higher returns over a set period of time, this method has met my objectives and allowed me to grow my net worth significantly.

So will there be a correction in 2020? In almost every election year, the market has done OK (with the exception of 2008, when it melted down spectacularly). However, I’ve been growing my net worth at an average of 6.1% per year for the last 14 years – and based on that I would need my investments to lose 9.5% in 2020 in order to maintain that 6.1% growth rate. Take of that, what you will.

My thought is that 2020 will be a “net 0” year, with limited gains in the market. Stocks are overpriced if you look at the metrics above, so it will take them some time for the profits to catch up with the price. My intention is to “stick with the plan” of investing regularly, keeping my allocation, and rebalancing.

What are you plans for 2020?

Mr. 39 Months

Dividend/Income Account Update

I wrote in July about the performance of my dividend/income account, the one that I have setup in my father’s stretch IRA. The concept was to see what I could do with an income-oriented account (dividends, etc.). Could we get the growth and income necessary to meet our retirement goals, and how did it do in comparison to the Vanguard account I had with the simple allocation?

The base allocation for the income account was 25% dividend paying stocks, 25% REITs (paying good dividends) and 50% Bonds. This was all based on the information in the book “Yes, you can be an income investor” by Ben Stein.

For the year, the account returned a healthy 3.51% dividend return, and growth of around 9.7%. Not too shabby! However, this is in comparison to my Vanguard IRA account, which had a 2.86% dividend, and a 16.51% growth rate. Obviously, the Vanguard account, with its higher weighting of stocks (52.5% stocks, 17.5% REITs, 30% bonds) did better in 2019.

One of the things I noticed, however, was that the income account didn’t drop as precipitously as the Vanguard account in the bear market of 2018. How have the two different accounts done over the last three years?

The Vanguard numbers are a little “screwy” as I have had to add back in the $90K of Roth-IRA conversions that I did in 2018 and 2019, and the Stretch IRA I have to take about $5K out each year for tax purposes. I’ve adjusted the totals and percentages to reflect this.

For comparison, I did the math for if you had invested $1000K in 2016, what would that be at the end of 2019. As of Jan 1, 2020, the Stretch IRA would have $1,232, while the Vanguard account would have $1,321 – the Vanguard account’s return was better. It wasn’t like that at the end of 2018, due to the stock drop.

My intention is to continue to keep the money in my father’s stretch IRA oriented on income, as a learning tool. Should be interesting.

Mr. 39 Months

Previous Updates:

Update on my income account

As many of you know, I’ve used my father’s inherited IRA to experiment with an income producing method of investing similar to the “old school” way that folks invested their money after retirement. This was laid out in Ben Stein’s book “Yes, you can become a successful income investor.” The idea was to create a method to generate enough income from the portfolio to live off of, without touching the principal (thereby letting it grow).

I detailed in a later post that, for the last 2-1/2 years, the stretch IRA was beating my vanguard allocation. I did note that this took into account the terrible 2018 year, which beat the Vanguard account down more than the income account. Over time, all my reading shows that the Vanguard account would do better – but be more volatile.

For the last three months, the account has not increase that much in value, but it has continued to throw off dividends. Investment value grew $2,194 for the six months (while the market was pretty stagnant), 1.7% (or 6.7% annual growth) while also throwing off $1,256.94 in dividends – the equivalent of 3.75% annual yield.

stock Details 1-Jul 1-Oct Yield Dividend
CVX Chevron $6,222.00 $5,614.50 4.24% $59.50
CSCO Cisco Systems $8,209.50 $6,984.00 3.01% $52.50
HR Healthcare Realty $7,830.00 $8,312.00 3.61% $75.00
PFF iShares $16,766.75 $16,912.35 5.24% $221.49
O Realty Income Corp (REIT) $6,897.00 $7,673.00 3.54% $67.95
SVC Hospitality Properties Trust $7,500.00 $7,498.50 8.64% $162.00
UMH UMH Properties $7,446.00 $8,622.00 5.01% $108.00
VZ Verizon $5,713.00 $5,891.00 4.09% $60.25
VBTLX Vanguard Total Bond Market Index $32,621.94 $33,248.71 2.69% $223.25
VBILX Vanguard Int-term Bond Index $32,787.96 $33,432.51 2.72% $227.00
$131,994.15 $134,188.57 3.75% $1,256.94

Not too shabby! Basically, its close to hitting the 4% withdrawal figure, while still growing sufficiently to keep up with inflation. What is interesting is that, while the stocks declined a lot (look at Chevron & Cisco) the other items (REITs,  bonds) helped to cushion the blow.

I’ll continue to monitor and see how this goes.

Mr. 39 Months

Timing the Market – Update for Aug 2019

Back two years ago, I reviewed Ben Stein’s & Phil DeMuth’s book “Yes You can time the Market” in which they discussed ways  to time the market over the long term, using various signals signs to determine the long term (15 year trend) of the market. They definitely did not believe in short-term timing, but they did present a good case for how to look at the current state and make long-term determinations.

I followed up with several other posts in which I looked at short-term timing, and at what Stein/DeMuth’s strategy would have resulted if I had followed it since graduating college in 1986 (answer, I would have been 5% – 10% richer over a 30 year period, including the dot.com crash).

I thought I’d provide a slight update to folks in case they were interested.

If you remember, Stein/DeMuth had four key measurements to determine the long-term direction of the market:

  1. Price vs 15-year average
  2. Price-to-earnings ratio vs. 15-year average
  3. Dividend yield vs. 15-year average
  4. Bond yeld vs Dividend yield

For Jan 1, 2018, the numbers showed:

  • Price (adjusted for inflation) of $2,883 vs 15 year avg of $1,789 – don’t buy stock
  • P/E ratio: 24.97 vs 15-year average of 23.2 – don’t buy stock
  • Dividend Yield: 1.83% vs. 15-year average of 1.99% – don’t buy stock
  • Earnings Yield (inverse of P/E) vs. AAA bond yield: 4.0% vs 3.5% – buy stock

So three out of the four metrics said don’t buy. The S&P 500 for 2018 was down -6.2% (source CNBC). A lot of folks paid money for stocks that were overpriced at the beginning of 2018.

So what did Jan 2019 look like?

  • Price (adjusted for inflation) of $2,654 vs 15 year avg of $1,862 – don’t buy stock
  • P/E ratio: 19.6 vs 15-year average of 23.0 – Buy Stock
  • Dividend Yield: 2.14% vs. 15-year average of 2.03% – Buy Stock
  • Earnings Yield (inverse of P/E) vs. AAA bond yield: 5.1% vs 3.98% – Buy Stock

So three out of the four metrics say “buy stocks” – and the market is up 15.23% year-to-date

Does this prove that Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth’s market timing strategy is still valid. It appears to be still going well.

Anybody out there with an interesting market timing strategy?

Mr. 39 months

Status update of my income account investments vs. regular investments

Some folks have been asking how my income account has been doing overall, especially in comparison to the market. If you remember, I wrote about setting this up back in May of 2017. Using the concepts outlined in Ben Stein’s book “Yes you can be a successful income investor”, I created an account specifically designed to throw off dividends, in an attempt to see if one could create a retirement with this sort of setup. The hope was that the account would throw off sufficient income, and still grow to match inflation.

So how has it done for the last several years? Because it’s an inherited IRA, I have to take money out of it every year, based on my age at the time my father passed away. I will factor that in. I’ll compare the performance to my overall investments in one of my IRAs (which contains a mix of 52.5% stocks, 17.5% REITs, and 30% bonds).

Year Strech IRA Dec Strech IRA Yield Strech IRA Growth % Vanguard Dec Vanguard Yield Vanguard Growth % US inflation rate
2016 $129,811 3.42% 0.00% $262,985 2.20% 0.00% 2.10%
2017 $139,119 3.37% 3.80% $298,748 2.42% 11.18% 2.10%
2018 $136,583 3.62% -5.44% $234,647 3.22% -24.68% 1.90%
2019 $146,994 3.75% 3.87% $273,917 2.33% 14.41% TBD

Overall, the stretch IRA’s allocation of 25% dividend stocks, 25% REITs and 50% bonds have thrown off an average of 3.58% dividends annually, and has grown from Dec 2016 to July 2019 at a rate of 2.50% (pretty much keeping up with the US’s low inflation rate).

The Vanguard account has had a dividend yield of around 2.66% (not too shabby), but due to the bad 2017, it has grown at a negative -3.81% for the same time period. However, its growth over the last ten years has probably put the dividend account to shame. If you look at the spreadsheet above, the Vanguard account beat the stuffing out of the Dividend account in 2017 (and appears to be doing it in 2019)

The question comes down to are you willing to have some “low points” like 2018, to get the higher growth periods, or do you want more stability, where it doesn’t crash as much (compare 2018’s -5.44% drop in the dividend account versus the -24.68% in the Vanguard account!). I’d like to think that you could get by with the dividend account once you hit FI and want to follow the 4% rule, but like most folks, I’m very concerned about inflation. The Weimar republic is a brutal lesson, and the US continues to spend way more than it takes in.

For folks who want to know, here is a quick rundown of my dividend account:

Chevron Corp CVX  $               124.44 50.0
Cisco CSCO  $                  54.73 150.0
Healthcare Realty Trust HR  $                  31.32 250.0
Hospitality Properties Trust HPT  $                  25.00 300.0
Ishares Preferred PFF  $                  36.85 455.0
Realty Income Corp O  $                  68.97 100.0
UMH Properties Inc UMH  $                  12.41 600.0
Verizon VZ  $                  57.13 100.0
Vanguard Total Bond Index VBTLX  $                  10.93 2984.6
Vanguard Int-term Bond index VBILX  $                  11.70 2802.4

Hopefully, this is useful to folks. I’ll continue to monitor in the years ahead and provide regular updates.

Have a great summer!

Mr. 39 Months

The benefits of “Stay the Course”

Checked out the S&P 500 this morning. It’s a typical bellwether on how markets are doing, and many people have their investments tied to it, via an S&P500 Index fund. So it is a good judge of how I’m doing with my investments.

As you remember from numerous postings, I have not really let 2018’s market downturns affect my investing strategy. The idea was always to “stick  to the plan” and continue to invest via dollar cost averaging. This has been shown in numerous studies to be the most effective investment strategy.

Well, in checking the S&P 500, what did I find? In Feb 2018, the S&P 500 was as $2,619.55. One year later, the same index is at 2,728.40. Yup, up 4.15% over the last 12 months. Thus, the S&P500 finally dug itself out of the hole it dropped into early last year. By staying the course (and buying a lot of investments “on the cheap” back in 2018) I was able to recover. This also doesn’t take into account the dividends that my investments paid over this same time.

Other posts are dealing with market declines

Mr. 39 Months

Update on Value Investing Portfolio

I went through my value investing choices in my “fun money” account, and reviewed them for performance. If you remember, this account is around 5% of my total invested assets (the majority of them are in straight index funds, allocated over stocks, bonds & REITs). With this account, I sought to experiment with investing in value stocks, based on the writings of Graham, Buffet and other value stock disciples. I wrote two articles on that back in 2017.

The general tenets of the analysis, I broke down into several categories of analysis for each stock:

  1. Market value greater than $2 Billion (Strength)
  2. Current ratio (current assets/current liabilities) of 2-1 or greater
  3. Positive earnings in each of the last 10 years
  4. Paid dividend at least 20 years, and raised over last 20 years
  5. Increased earnings per share by at least 1/3 over 10 years
  6. P/E of 15 or less
  7. Price-to-book of 2.5 or less
  8. Return on Equity of 15% or more, and growing

Not every stock can have all of these, but they should have the majority (and be trending in the right direction). Most stock analysis tools (like Morningstar) will let you put in these feature and determine those stocks that meet or are close to these values.

In the account, I had three stocks that, when I did the analysis, matched somewhat close to these values: Gilead Science (GILD), CSS Industries (CSS) and Tahoe Resources (TAHO).

In addition, Graham had a value equation (updated by recent value disciples) that helped to determine real value for the stocks. Using that, I was able to determine that all three of these were undervalued, based on current earnings, growth potential, etc. In it, you took the company’s earnings without dividends, multiplied it by 2*a company growth rate (I chose 6%) plus 8.5%, and then multiplied that times 4.4 divided by the corporate bond yield.

When looking at my three value stocks, I had the following results:

  • GILD: 6 out of 8 in the categories. Est value of $101.02/share vs current price of $75.42 (+@$25.60)
  • CSS: 6 out of 8 in the categories. Est value of $22.10/share vs share price of $27.86 (-$5.76)
  • TAHO: 3 out of 8 categories (they fell off a lot this year). Est value of $4.81 vs current price of $4.49 (+$0.32)

Based on this, I chose to sell my CSS and TAHO at the beginning of the year. I also chose to sell the REITs I had in the account (I was originally setting it up like my dividend paying account, and only in 2017 did I chose to do value investing in it). This would give me a significant amount of money that I planned to put into three value stock plays.

I did the analysis of the eight categories and came up with 2 other stocks that interested me:

  • SBS (Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo SABESP): 5 out of 8 in the categories. Est value of $19.69/share vs. current price of $10.43 (89% upside)
  • BBGI (Beasley Broadcast Group Inc.): 5 out of 8 in the categories. Est. value of $29.01/share vs. price of $12.80 (127% upside)
  • I also chose to double my investment in GILD, as it still had significant upside.

I was struck by the lack of stocks that met many of the categories, due to price. It appears the stock run-up has cut into the potential for getting good value stocks.

So evenly split, I have about $12K in each of these value stocks. I’ll let folks now how they do throughout the year.

 

Mr. 39 Months

 

 

 

 

Stock Evaluation 2 – Benjamin Graham method

In my first post, I talked about some of the rules that Benjamin Graham used to sort through the stocks to identify. Back in June, I used the decision criteria from “The Little Book of Value Investing.” I used these to identify seven potential stocks at the time, and saw which stocks matched the most criteria (shown in green)

 

OTEX TSN PAG LYB GILD SYMC ALK
Name Open Text Corp Tyson Foods Inc Penske Automotive Group Inc LyondellBasell Industries NV Gilead Sciences Inc Symantec Corp Alaska Air Group Inc
Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.4% 2.3% 3.7% 3.0% 1.0% 1.2%
Greater than $2B market value $8.81B $17.99B $4.40B $37.21B $91.62B $17.85B $11.96B
2-1 ratio of current assets vs liabilities 3.3 1.8 1 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7
Positive earnings in each of last 10 years 5 5 5 5 5
Paid a dividend at least 20 years, raised over last 20 years No Yes Yes No No
Increase their earnings per share by at least 1/3, over 10 years Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
P/E of 15 7.4 13.8 13 10.1 7 9.2 14.8
Price-to-book of 2.5 or less 2.52 2.33 2.51 6.12 5.43 4.52 4.18

 

The next step from there was to look through the stocks, get information and try and see which ones you understand. It does you no good to evaluate a company’s performance if you don’t really understand what they do. Warren Buffet is well known for not investing in technology, because he doesn’t really understand it. He understands Coca Cola, Geico insurance, etc. – so that is what he invests in. In this case, I understood OTEX, Tyson, PAG, Lyb and Gilead, so I chose to concentrate on them.

Graham had a formula for determining intrinsic value. Value = E * (2g + 8.5)  * 4.4/Y

  • E = current earnings per share, after taking out dividends
  • G = annual earnings growth – with 5 percent figured as a “5”. Typically for young, growth companies he used 10% growth, while using 6% for companies in a mature industry
  • 8.5 is the base P/E ratio for a stock with no growth
  • Y is the current interest rate, represented as the average rate on high-=grade corporate bonds

An example would be a company with a current earnings of $2.30, a growth rate of 10 percent, and a corporate bond rate of 6 percent. The intrinsic value is $2.30 * ((2*10)+8.5) * (4.4/6) or $48.07 per share

 

When I took the list above, using this equation, I came up with the following intrinsic value

Intrinsic Value OTEX TSN PAG LYB GILD
Earnings w/o dividends $0.75 $3.93 $2.69 $6.58 $7.13
Growth rate 10% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Bond yield 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Graham’s Value $25.42 $95.81 $65.58 $160.41 $173.82
Current Stock $33.48 $62.50 $51.88 $91.80 $72.06
Variance ($8.06) $33.31 $13.70 $68.61 $101.76

After this analysis I took the opportunity to look through Gilead’s annual reports. While their stock price had dropped dramatically, their overall economic position was strong, and they had a lot of excess cash. By the time I ended up deciding on the stock , Gilead had actually dropped to $66.46 (almost $6 less than my original analysis).  Using Graham’s numbers, it appears to have a tremendous amount of “up” (it had a P/E ratio of 7, or if inverted, a yield of 14%!). Since I purchased it in late June 2017, it has gone up to $83.27 (a 25.3% jump). Supposedly, based on it earnings, it could go as high as $173.82. I will have to keep track of it going forward.

In August and September, using the same concept, I’ve purchased TAHO (a mining company) and CSS (consumer products) both selling below book value, and seemingly underpriced. While I haven’t gotten a big “jump” on either (TAHO up 6% in 2 months, CSS up 2% in 1 month), they are both doing fairly well. I will keep them until they come close to their intrinsic value – which may be several years.

What systems do you guys use to pick stocks or mutual funds?

 

Mr.39 Months

Value Investing – part 1

Stock Evaluation – Benjamin Graham method

In my ongoing quest to look at finances and improve my financial performance, I’ve done a lot of reading on value investing. The general concept of value investing is that you can, with some accuracy, determine the intrinsic value of a stock.  However, the stock market is often based on emotions, and a stock can be selling for less than its intrinsic value (due to bad news and overreaction, general lack of knowledge of a certain company’s performance, or the stock not being in a “sexy” industry.

I worked for a company in 2000 that was in automotive (i.e. not a “sexy” dotcom in 1999 -2000). Very well run, great numbers, but only trading at $1.68 a share. Once the dotcoms blew up, people starting looking for other companies to buy and found ours. Over the next seven years, it went over $140/share (taking into account splits). While we did great work at this company, even I don’t think it was worth a 833% rise in value.

The key for a value investor is to find these “diamonds in the rough,” purchase them, and then have the patience to wait till they jump up. If you can judge the intrinsic value, it may take the market a year, or 5 years, but eventually you will be rewarded.

Note that this is the exact opposite of the “efficient market” theory that rules Wall Street at this time – the belief that information is known to all, and therefore the market is correctly priced, each day. These investors tend to emphasize hot growth stocks. However, if everyone had total knowledge, why are there always sellers and buyers for a share of stock, with both of them thinking they made a good deal?

One of the earliest proponents of the value theory was Benjamin Graham, and most of the big value investors are disciples of his teachings (Warren Buffet and many others actually took classes from Graham and worked for him).

In looking through books authored by Graham, liked The Intelligent Investor, or other value investors, they ended up with a process to evaluate and pick value stocks:

  1. Learn to understand a company’s basic financial documents (balance sheet, earnings statement, cash flow)
  2. Use simple metrics (I will show Graham’s ten values) to weed out the majority of non-value stocks
  3. Once you have identified a list of candidates, use some additional rules to weed out those value-type stocks that don’t match your goals, or who are questionable
  4. Invest and show patience while you wait for the market to agree with your valuation.

I won’t go into details here on how to reach a company’s documents. There is a wide variety of information on-line, but here are some, in case you need them:

  1. Reading a balance sheet 
  2. Reading an earning’s statement
  3. Reading a cash flow statement

For step 2, Benjamin Graham (and other value investors) used a series of ratios to weed out the stocks that did not meet their value objectives

No Criteria Measures
1 Earnings to price (the inverse of P/E) is double the high-grade corporate bond yield. If the high-grade bon yields 7%, then earnings to price should be 14% Risk
2 P/E ratio that is 0.4 times the highest average P/E achieve in the last 5 years Risk
3 Dividend is 2/3 the high-grade bond yield Risk
4 Stock price of 2/3 the tangible book value per share Risk
5 Stock price of 2/3 the net current asset value Risk
6 Total debt is lower than tangible book value Financial Strength
7 Current ratio (current assets / current liabilities) is greater than 2 Financial Strength
8 Total debt is no more than liquidation value Financial Strength
9 Earnings have doubled in most recent ten years Earnings Stability
10 Earnings have  declined no more than 5% in 2 years of the past 10 years Earnings Stability
If stocks meet seven out of the ten criteria, it is probably a good value, according to Graham. If you are income oriented, recommended to pay special attention to items 1 – 7

Graham’s criteria from Value Investing for Dummies

In my next post, I’ll explain how I used these criteria to identify a group of stocks, and then did further research in order to pick one for my “fun money” account. You’ll get to see how I did there.

 

Mr.39 Months

Timing the Market – How would I have done if I followed it since I graduated?

Back at the beginning of the month (Aug 5th) I wrote about Stein & DeMuth’s use of long-term metrics and trends to “time the market” in the long term (i.e. over a 10-15+ year period). Unfortunately, their book was published in 2003, and while they kept graphs up on their website (   ) for a while, they stopped updating the graphs in 2015.

I wanted to do a “what if” analysis, where if I had followed their metric strategy from when I first graduated and started investing some of my salary (1987) to the end of 2016, a 30 year period. I would take $1,000 a year and invest it either in the S&P 500 every year (dollar cost averaging) or the S&P or AAA bonds, based on the “market timing” signal that Stein & DeMuth laid out:

  1. S&P 500 price vs. 15-year average (if above average, don’t buy)
  2. S&P500 P/E vs. 15-year average (if above average, don’t buy)
  3. S&P500 Dividend yield vs. 15-year average (if above average, don’t buy)
  4. S&P500 Earnings yield vs. AAA bond average (if bond yield is higher, go with bonds, not stocks)

Base Strategy

  • Whenever I got a “buy” for S&P 500, I put in $1,000 at the beginning of the year
  • Whenever I got a “don’t buy” I put in $1,000 in the average for AAA bonds
  • I adjusted for inflation
  • I ran the numbers for each of the 4 scenarios, for the 30 year period, including the great run up of stocks in the 90s, the dotcom crash, the low bond rates of the 00s, and the crash of 2008.

The results were very interesting.

  • Dollar cost averaging into S&P500: $60,691
  • Price metic: $65,576 (8.0% better return)
  • P/E metric: $67,583 (11.4% better return)
  • Yield metric: $67,133 (10.6% better return)
  • Earnings vs bonds: $66,034 (8.8% better return)

What this shows me is that, if you have the patience and long-term outlook necessary, using the metrics outlined by Stein & DeMuth appears to offer slightly better returns. In their book , they showed higher returns (20%), but that could simply have been the timing of the book – right after the dot.com crash.

I will probably continue dollar-cost averaging in my 401K and Roth IRAs across a spectrum of investments with my allocation. I will also probably use some of this timing strategy with my “funny money.” I’ll let you know how I’m doing.

Anybody out there with an interesting market timing strategy?

 

Mr. 39 months