As I write this, the American S&P500 Stock index is down 31.8% from its high on Feb 14, 2020. Trillions of dollars have been wiped out in the span of five weeks, primarily due to the uncertainty of the Chinese Corona Virus. Many folks, myself included, expected some sort of a market correction this year (the P/E ratio of 24+ vs. a historical average of 15 almost guaranteed it). Still, this as been a staggering loss for many, including myself.
My paper losses have been something around $250,000 from the beginning of the year (it would have been $350K if my allocation was 100% stocks). My plans to achieve FI on July 1st of this year are pretty much trashed (even without the recalculation that our financial advisor forced upon me). So how is my morale?
Actually not bad. I think this is due to my age – “with age comes wisdom.” In terms of the Chinese Corona Virus, my generation has been hearing about the end of the world so many times, that this sort of things bounces off. We will get through this like so many other things. In terms of market dropping, I’ve been through 1987, 2000, 2008 and now this. The market will recover, and the younger folks have even more time that we do. It does look like my retirement timeline will need to be reset, but even that doesn’t have me too frustrated.
Like many folks, I’ve been sequestered from work for this past week, working from home. While the workload has been heavy, I’ve been able to get it done. However, I find that I miss the comradery of my work peers, and it has made me realize that I can’t just retire and sit on the porch (most FIRE people can’t either). So when I retire, I am going to have to make sure I have a lot to keep me busy (side hustles, charity work, etc.) In the meantime, I think I will be OK with working a while longer in order to build myself back up to my FI number.
How are you doing in terms of your drive towards FI? How has this drop affecting your plans, if you are already retired or moving towards it? Are you handling this downturn well? What moves have you chosen to make (if any) in your investment strategy or allocation? I hope that you aren’t “overreacting” or panicking like so many folks I hear about. The S&P 500 is trading at a P/E ratio of 17.34 – which is still a little high vs. its historical average. Bonds aren’t selling well, due to the Fed’s interest rate drop. What do you do?
I’d like to hear from other people on how they are reacting to this. One great thing about our community is how much we share, including the “nitty-gritty” details.
Good luck in the weeks ahead!
Mr. 39 Months.