Let’s be Careful Out there….

I’ve spoken before about my “side hustle” of TKD woodworking in the past (look through link on the right). I really love woodworking, and its given me an outlet where I can fund my interest, improve my skills, and practice the administrative tasks of running a company (financial documents, website, etc.)

One of the issues with any sort of hand labor (carpentry, automotive, etc.) is there is a danger from the tools you use. You need to always be on guard, especially with powered equipment (like Table saws, miter saws, etc.). Whenever I’m working with powered equipment, I make sure the guards are on, and I use a healthy respect for these tools. It is one of the reasons I got a Sawstop table saw – it has a braking system in it that cuts out the saw if it detects it is cutting flesh. I can honestly say that I have not had a power-tool injury in the 30+ years I have been doing this work.

Unfortunately, I now can’t say the same about hand tools. Yes, those tools that are powered by Human muscle. Its very embarrassing.

I have a few old-time wooden hand planes that I don’t use very frequently. I’ve got them stored above a cabinet, since I only pull them out once every 2 years or so. Well, I was pulling something out of the cabinet, and one of the hand planes fell. For wooden hand planes, the blade is held in with a wooden wedge, and in this case, the wedge came loose, and the blade fell down. Did I step back and away? Of course not, I reflectively tried to catch the plane & blade, and the result was a somewhat severe cut to my ring finger on my left hand. Ouch!

Visit to minute clinic and then hand doctor yielded a bandaged hand, and then an operation to reattach one of the nerves in the hand. Luckily there was no damage to the ligaments, so I still have full range of motion. But for the next 2 weeks, I’ve got no shop time – have to keep in clean.

Lesson’s learned – never store sharp tools above where they could fall. This has been fixed in my shop now. As my wife says, it could have been worse.

Mr. 39 Months

Saturday Linkage:

9/11/2021

  1. Stop saving for retirement. Start saving for financial independence (Dividend Strategy); This should be the anthem of the FI community
  2. What Would Happen If We Slowed Down? (Cal Newport); How much would it hurt you professionally if your worked 20% less that you had time, instead of the typical 20% more?  
  3. The Everything Bubble (Blog FTX); Everything seems to be up!
  4. What Has the Stock Market Taught Us Since 2010?(A Wealth of Common Sense)
  5. If The Fed Steps Back, Do Yields Step Up? (Brinker Capital); That which can’t go on – won’t.
  6. Replacing “have to” with “get to” (5AM Joel); Simple switch of perspective and mindset
  7. Compounding – The Eighth Wonder of the World (FiResearch)
  8. Turning 50: Rethinking My Perfect Day (Costarica fire); Interestingyou’re your priorities change as you get older
  9. The Great Resignation: Millions Are Quitting, Should You? (Money Under 30); Interesting as this is happening at the same time as vaccine “mandates.” This is going to squeeze companies very hard.
  10. Ask People What They Do, They Might Surprise You (Financial Samurai)
  11. 4 Bad Habits That Lead to Late Nights (Budget Life List); Watch your health!

Millionaires Don’t Buy New Cars?

Go Curry Cracker had a good article on his purchasing decisions for his new car. It starts with some of the basic advice of the book, Millionaire Next Door. He then walks through his decision making process on what to buy, used vs. new, electric vehicles, cost of ownership, and financing vs. cash purchase. Overall its an excellent article for anyone thinking of getting a new/used vehicle in the near future.

My history (and Mrs. 39 Months) is interesting, in comparison to the Millionaire next door. The book discusses the pluses and minuses of purchasing new and used, when to trade in, when to lease (almost never). For us, we tend to purchase new, and then drive the vehicles forever. I have owned four vehicles in my life, and two of them I have left on the side of the road after 100,000+ miles/multiple years. Literally driving them till they died.

My third vehicle I put 280,000 miles on over 10 years, and finally traded it in when the creaking on it (whenever I braked) go too bad. I’m now driving my fourth car, a 4-door sedan, with 180,000+ miles on it over 11 years. I hope to keep driving this one till I decide to retire – and then it’s a truck!

Mrs. 39 Months has only owned two cars. The first she drove for 16 years before trading it in, and the current one, which she has driven for 14. While she doesn’t put as many miles on it as I do (due to work) she also doesn’t see a need to purchase a new one every 3 years.

Well, Mrs. 39 Month’s car has started to have some electrical problems (bad symptom) so she has started looking for something new. She has a good idea of what she wants, but due to the current issues with the automotive supply chain, we haven’t been able to find what she is looking for available. So we’re nursing her car along right now until maybe 2022. Hopefully…..

The benefit of being FI and in good financial shape is that we’ll be ready to pay with cash on this (and my future purchase). Hopefully we can get a good deal here and she’ll have another car she can drive for 15+ years. Wish us luck.

What is your car buying story?

Mr. 39 Months

Saturday Linkage:

9/4/2021

  1.  Who is the Wealthiest Generation? (Economist Writing Every Day) If you measure it per Capita/per person, the answer is going to surprise you!
  2. I hustled like mad in my 20s. Here’s what it cost me. (Woke Salary Man); Cute comic strip display of first principles.
  3. Play the Hand You’re Dealt To Live the Life You Dream (route to Retire); Life isn’t fair, but we can all do the best we can with the cards we are dealt.
  4. 2 Years of FIRE: Life After an Early Exit From Medicine (Physician on Fire); Interesting tales from someone who took the first step out
  5. On Time, Money and Health (Today Purpose); You can’t just save for the future – you have to take the opportunity now to live. Don’t wait till you have “retired”
  6. Tracking Spending: A Foundational Skill of Personal Finance (Managing FI)
  7. Everything is going up? (Irrelevant Investor); Not everything is going up in this market – some surprises!
  8. Not Wanting Something Is as Good as Having It (Four Pillar Finance); A truism
  9. The Returns of Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks (Mindfully Investing) When you add in capital appreciation and rent increases, rental real estate is close since 1928
  10. Fifteen good money habits to adopt today (I Heart Frugal)
  11. The Myth Of Diversification – And Why It Means It’s Okay To Take Chances (Financial Panther) I think I’m a little more conservative than him, but I am 57 years old now /

Change to Allocation

I continue to be stunned and surprised at the increase value of the market as the year continues. From its March 2020 low point of 2,237.4, the S&P500 has now hit $4,524.09, basically doubling in value in 17 months. It seems like the market will just keep going up & up!

We all know this isn’t possible, but folks have been betting against the market (including me) for months now, and we continue to get it wrong. That’s why its always important to stay in the market, no matter what. Don’t pull your money out, because by the time you figure out the market has turned back up, you’ve already missed a significant amount of gains.

That being said, I have had two major concerns at this moment:

  1. The presence of high inflation may continue and force the fed to raise interest rates. If so, that will do some damage to the returns of my bond funds (which haven’t performed very well comparatively for the last several years).
  2. The S&P 500 continues to be way overvalued, with P/E ratios more than 2X historical values.

So I made the decision to make some changes to my investment allocation.

  • Change Bond allocation from 20% to 10%, reducing my exposure to the Fed raising interest rates
  • Change S&P500 allocation from 20% to 15%, reducing my exposure to the “overvalued” S&P
  • Add 15% allocation to dividend stocks – typically those steady stocks that continue to throw off income, even when the market sinks somewhat

While you could say that this might reduce my returns by reducing my exposure to the S&P 500, I actually have increased my stock allocation from 60% to 70%. I’ve just changed some of the stock investments to dividend stocks, which may not grow as fast, but should grow and throw income off better than bonds in the current environment.

So, my new allocation for my IRAs is:

  • 10% bonds
  • 15% dividend Stocks
  • 15% S&P 500
  • 20% Small Cap stocks
  • 20% International stocks
  • 20% REITS

We will have to see how that goes in the near future.

Read more

Mr. 39 Months

Saturday Linkage:

8/28/2021

  1. 3 Free Happiness Hacks (Budget Life List) Simple but great ideas
  2. We Don’t Need More Money… But I Want It! (Route to Retire) The fear of most folks that retire early – we always want a bigger safety cushion.
  3. Private Lending v. Rentals – What Is The Better Real Estate Investment? (Costa Rica Fire): I know I’m using REITS right now, though still looking at direct investing at some point.
  4. The danger of outgrowing your lifestyle (Early Retirement Extreme); Discussion on lifestyle progression as you age.
  5. New Commission! Custom Table top (TKD Woodworking): More work at the shop.
  6. Benefits of Meal Prepping and How to Start (Women who Money) One of the best ways to reduce your food budget and eat healthier!
  7. 9 Questions to Ask Aging Parents About Their Finances (Kiplingers); For those of us in the “Sandwich Generation”
  8. Use Technology Like the Amish (Art of Manliness); Interesting article for those of us who want to reduce our dependency on new Tech
  9. Estate Planning 101 — The Simple Path to an Estate Plan (JL Collins)
  10. Too Much Time After Retirement? (Retire by 40); One of my biggest fears – retire with nothing to do
  11. Lake Time! (Reflections around the campfire); People are getting out and camping/RVing!

What are your assumptions when planning for FI and retirement?

A key part of planning for Financial Independence is to determine the assumptions you make for the future. This is always a “moving target” as we are trying to predict the future. We can go back to past periods of time and try and use that (this is what the 4% rule was based on) but we are trying to predict an ever-changing future. This is fraught with risk.

A person’s personality (and their spouse’s personality) now “comes to the fore” here.  If they are optimistic, then the prediction is on high investment returns, low inflation, and good health. If they are pessimistic, then its low investment returns, high inflation and potential higher costs for health care. Most folks are somewhere in between – but this is a key part of the “angsts” of people trying to hit their retirement goals – and has been for many decades. The fact that folks are living longer (and thus the big problem if they guess wrong) has further caused people’s stomachs to churn.

Many people in the FI community have never lived in a high inflation era. Inflation got smacked down in the 80s, so for the last three decades, we’ve been living with 2% – 4% inflation. For those of us older (late 50s, 60s) we remember the 70s and early 80s, where inflation hit double-digits and caused a massive crunch in people’s plans for retirement. That’s why boomers typically overestimate inflation, and non-bloomers underestimate.

The same goes for investment returns. From 1968 – 1982, the stock market returned a net 0% – fourteen years! So again, boomers tend to be a little more conservative in their return predictions. Non-boomers have known some pretty sweet times for the market (and some crashes) so their predictions might be more aggressive. I’ve written before about how I think the market is way overvalued, so we may be in for a significant correction/crash in the near term.

So what are my FI assumptions?

  • Inflation -3% per year
  • Social Security increases – 2% per year (i.e. doesn’t keep pace with actual inflation)
  • Stock returns – 7.8% per year (down from historical 10%)
  • Bond returns – 3.1% per year (down from historical 4.6%)
  • Return for 60% stock/40% bond portfolio – 5.92%
  • Return after inflation – 2.92%
  • Life timeline: Live to 97 (me) and 99 (Mrs. 39 Months)

I used to be more aggressive with my investment returns, but after my meetings with our investment advisor in 2019, I dialed them back somewhat.

Based on this, our current portfolio, and taking Social Security at age 67, we could retire now and still end up with the equivalent, in 2021 dollars, of $291K at time of death. So we’re FI!

Still, the assumptions could be not pessimistic enough – and we could be hurting in our old age. We will see…..

So what are your assumptions for your calculations?

Mr. 39 Months

Saturday Linkage:

8/21/2021

  1. Huge List of Awesome Retirement Activities (ESI Money); A lot of good ideas
  2. Are You Worth More Than You Earned? (Retire by 40) A key measure of financial independence
  3. Inflation vs. Wages (A Wealth of Common Sense); Inflation is coming. Be ready for it
  4. Preparing For A 50-Year Retirement With Vanguard’s New Return Assumptions (Financial Samurai) Vanguard’s assumptions are significantly lower than the past (4.02% for stocks, 1.3% for bonds, 1.58% inflation)
  5. Why I Took Money out of My House (The Irrelevant Investor); I disagree with this, I plan on holding onto my equity
  6. Create a Wealth Building Machine by Automating Your Finances (Mr. Money Wizard); 
  7. Ignore All Predictions: Investing, Economics, Weather, and Everything Else (Practically Independent); Predictions are often not worth the paper they are written on
  8. Living Paycheck To Paycheck… On Purpose (Impersonal Finances); Using an interesting technique to practice frugality
  9. 31 Simple Investment Rules – With Supporting Data (Dividend Earner); Some basic, some new
  10. Estate Planning for Your Pets (ESI Money); A key point for anyone in their estate planning – take care of your Pets!
  11. Is the Necktie Obsolete? (Art of Manliness); Yes, it is.

Blogroll Purge IV – Aug 2021

I have written several times before about the need to clean up/purge the blogroll to the right, so that viewers can get recent, up-to-date commentary on FIRE related topics (and other areas that I’m interested in).

People stop writing in their blogs for a variety of reasons. Some folks like Cracking Retirement, just exhaust what they want to say, and decide to step away – and take the opportunity to announce it on their blogs.

Others do a “slow fade” and stop posting regularly. What I always try to do is leave them up for several months, in the hopes they will get “re-inspired” and start posting again. After 3+ months, my thought is that they will probably not be returning – so I drop them.

This gives me the space and opportunity to put up new bloggers and commenters on the blogroll, and introduce people to other ideas. Hopefully its of service to you.

Enjoy!

Mr. 39 Months

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Saturday Linkage:

8/14/2021

  1. Wear a wide brimmed hat and retire extremely early (Early Retirement Extreme); Standard advice for all of us on how to live frugally and retire very early
  2. 3 Exercises Help Reluctant-to-Retire Folks Know When to Say When (Kiplingers). Interesting exercises to see if you are ready to go
  3. More Is More: The End of Minimalism (The Walrus); its always a cycle – just like the 70s begat the 80s
  4. Don’t Turn Your Passions Into Work (Bitches get Riches) Something I need to guard against with my woodworking side hustle
  5. It’s Okay to Outgrow the Life You Thought You Wanted (Rainesford Stauffer); The goal posts are always moving
  6. Curbside Pickup and the End of Peak Consumerism (Art of Manliness); Shopping online appears to be cutting back on impulse buying of extra items we don’t need
  7. This Is What ‘Self-Care’ REALLY Means, Because It’s Not All Salt Baths And Chocolate Cake (Thought Catalog) “True self-care is not salt baths and chocolate cake, it is making the choice to build a life you don’t need to regularly escape from.”  
  8. The Cost of Friendship (Incognito Money Scribe); One of the saddest things about the modern era is the decline of friendship
  9. Buying an Annuity versus Equities (Retire Early Lifestyle); Alternatives to just buing an annuity at retirement.
  10. The Ad Revenue Grid (Four Pillar Finance); For those of you trying to monetize your blogs and websites
  11. Our 2021 RV Adventure is Underway! (the Retirement Manifesto); Update and review of a families post-retirement travels by plane, train and automobile